Bakersfield Housing Report - thebubblebuster.com

SUMMARY HISTORY PEAKS & TROUGHS FORECASTS

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The Bakersfield housing market experienced slower growth in the fourth quarter, but still posted its fourth best year on record in real terms. However, declines in sales activity has increased the number of homes on the market and is finally forcing sellers to lower their expectations. Further sales and the beginning of nominal pricing declines should be expected, particularly if mortgage rates move higher due to unfavorable affordability.

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Nominal Price Activity		Bakersfield	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	0.8%	-2.7%	Fair
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	8.5%	1.7%	Good
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	29.5%	13.4%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	139.5%	49.4%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	5.8%	6.0%	Fair
Real Price Activity		Bakersfield	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	0.4%	-3.0%	Fair
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	5.4%	-1.2%	Good
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	26.1%	10.3%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	111.7%	31.8%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	1.7%	1.7%	Fair
Affordability Activity		Bakersfield	National	Comment
	Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio* (Q4:2006)	34.3%	21.7%	Unfavorable
	Historical Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio*	28.9%	20.7%	High
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*	This ratio compares the monthly mortgage payment (principal & interest only, which does not include hazard insurance, property taxes or any needed private mortgage insurance) for a median priced home financed at the prevailing 30 year mortgage rate to the local median 4-person family income.
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	Bakersfield historical data is for the time period of Q4:1977 – Q4:2006
	National historical data is for the time period of Q1:1975 – Q4:2006

BAKERSFIELD, CALIFORNIA - Q4:2006