SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

---

1  |  2  |  Page 3  |  4   

In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past twenty-five years have seen two real price cycles in Boise. Both Boise market cycles involved nominal price growth. Market cycle time periods have varied from the downturn cycle of 9 years to the current growth cycle of 18 years.

GET BOISE MARKET FORECASTS     Next >

The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles and potentially the beginning of a fourth, all of which included large changes in home affordability. The peak in 1981 is an abnormality due to all time high mortgage rates. It does however act as the turning point of a nearly 22 year improvement in Boise home affordability. Due to this abnormality of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the median affordability ratio is skewed. Consequently, despite the fact that home affordability is only marginally above the median, the current affordability ratio generates some concern as it has reached a heightened level.