In
order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must
remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices.
The past thirty years have seen four real price cycles in Cleveland. The prior Cleveland market downturn
involved marginal nominal price growth, however, the present cycle has involved price decline. Market cycle time periods have varied from the prior growth cycle of 21 years to the downturn cycle of 5 years.
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|
Time
Period |
Real
Price History |
Real
Price Change |
Nominal
Price History |
Nominal
Price Change |
1975:Q4
- 1979:Q1 |
$111,400
- $140,100 |
25.7% |
$31,700
- $49,400 |
56.0% |
1979:Q1
- 1984:Q3 |
$140,100
- $102,900 |
-26.5% |
$49,400
- $52,600 |
6.5% |
1984:Q3
- 2005:Q1 |
$102,900
- $140,800 |
36.9% |
$52,600
- $133,300 |
153.4% |
2005:Q1
- 2006:Q4 |
$140,800
- $130,900 |
-7.0% |
$133,300
- $130,900 |
-1.8% |
|
The
mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate
method of determining market cycles. The
past thirty years
have seen two cycles, both of which included large changes in home affordability.
The current
cycle, unlike most US cities, has actually lead to increased affordability as the affordability ratio has improved over the past 25 years. In fact today's affordability is more positive than ever before, however despite this positive due to local economics it is unlikely the favorable affordability ratios will spur much real price growth in the short term.
|
Time
Period |
Cleveland
Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio |
Cleveland
Ratio Change |
National
Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio |
National
Ratio Change |
1975:Q4
- 1981:Q4 |
17.7%
- 31.8% |
79.4% |
20.5%
- 39.2% |
91.0% |
1981:Q4
- 2006:Q4 |
31.8%
- 12.6% |
-60.3% |
39.2%
- 21.7% |
-44.5% |
|