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CLEVELAND, OHIO - Q4:2006


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SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS
1  |  2  |  Page 3  |  4   
In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen four real price cycles in Cleveland. The prior Cleveland market downturn involved marginal nominal price growth, however, the present cycle has involved price decline. Market cycle time periods have varied from the prior growth cycle of 21 years to the downturn cycle of 5 years.

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Time
Period
Real
Price History
Real
Price Change
Nominal
Price History
Nominal
Price Change
1975:Q4 - 1979:Q1
$111,400 - $140,100
25.7%
$31,700 - $49,400
56.0%
1979:Q1 - 1984:Q3
$140,100 - $102,900
-26.5%
$49,400 - $52,600
6.5%
1984:Q3 - 2005:Q1
$102,900 - $140,800
36.9%
$52,600 - $133,300
153.4%
2005:Q1 - 2006:Q4
$140,800 - $130,900
-7.0%
$133,300 - $130,900
-1.8%

The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen two cycles, both of which included large changes in home affordability. The current cycle, unlike most US cities, has actually lead to increased affordability as the affordability ratio has improved over the past 25 years. In fact today's affordability is more positive than ever before, however despite this positive due to local economics it is unlikely the favorable affordability ratios will spur much real price growth in the short term.

Time
Period
Cleveland Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio
Cleveland
Ratio Change
National Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio
National
Ratio Change
1975:Q4 - 1981:Q4
17.7% - 31.8%
79.4%
20.5% - 39.2%
91.0%
1981:Q4 - 2006:Q4
31.8% - 12.6%
-60.3%
39.2% - 21.7%
-44.5%




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