SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

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In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen four real price cycles in Columbus. The prior Columbus market downturn involved marginal nominal price growth, which is the likely scenario for the current cycle. Market cycle time periods have varied from the prior growth cycle of twenty one years to the downturn cycle of five years.

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The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Fortunately, due in part to historically low mortgage rates, the current cycle has not come remotely near the all time highs of the early 1980s. Due to local economics however, it is unlikely the favorable affordability ratios will spur much real price growth.