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DETROIT, MICHIGAN - Q4:2006


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SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS
1  |  2  |  Page 3  |  4   
In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past 30 years have seen 4 real price cycles in Detroit. Similar to the prior downturn cycle both nominal and real prices have fallen in the current cycle. Market cycle time periods have varied from the prior growth cycle of 21 years to the downturn cycle of 5 years.

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Time
Period
Real
Price History
Real
Price Change
Nominal
Price History
Nominal
Price Change
1976:Q3 - 1979:Q3
$99,600 - $127,600
28.1%
$29,500 - $47,400
60.7%
1979:Q3 - 1984:Q4
$127,600 - $83,500
-34.5%
$47,400 - $43,200
-8.8%
1984:Q4 - 2005:Q1
$83,500 - $164,800
97.3%
$43,200 - $156,000
261.2%
2005:Q1 - 2006:Q4
$164,800 - $154,600
-6.2%
$156,000 - $154,600
-0.9%

The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen four cycles, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Detroit is the only major US city to see an improvement in home affordability over the past five years. Due to local economics however, it is unlikely the improvement will spur much real price growth in the short term.

Time
Period
Detroit Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio
Detroit
Ratio Change
National Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio
National
Ratio Change
1976:Q3 - 1981:Q4
13.7% - 27.2%
98.9%
21.4% - 40.8%
90.7%
1981:Q4 - 1993:Q4
27.2% - 11.4%
-58.2%
40.8% - 17.0%
-58.4%
1993:Q4 - 2000:Q2
11.4% - 15.5%
36.4%
17.0% - 18.8%
11.0%
2000:Q2 - 2006:Q4
15.5% - 13.1%
-15.5%
18.8% - 23.7%
25.8%




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