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In
order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past 30 years have seen 4 real price cycles in Detroit. Similar to the prior downturn cycle both nominal and real prices have fallen in the current cycle. Market cycle time periods have varied from the prior growth cycle of 21 years to the downturn cycle of 5 years.
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|
Time
Period |
Real
Price History |
Real
Price Change |
Nominal
Price History |
Nominal
Price Change |
1976:Q3
- 1979:Q3 |
$99,600
- $127,600 |
28.1% |
$29,500
- $47,400 |
60.7% |
1979:Q3
- 1984:Q4 |
$127,600
- $83,500 |
-34.5% |
$47,400
- $43,200 |
-8.8% |
1984:Q4
- 2005:Q1 |
$83,500
- $164,800 |
97.3% |
$43,200
- $156,000 |
261.2% |
2005:Q1
- 2006:Q4 |
$164,800
- $154,600 |
-6.2% |
$156,000
- $154,600 |
-0.9% |
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The
mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen four cycles, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Detroit is the only major US city to see an improvement in home affordability over the past five years. Due to local economics however, it is unlikely the improvement will spur much real price growth in the short term.
|
Time
Period |
Detroit
Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio |
Detroit
Ratio Change |
National
Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio |
National
Ratio Change |
1976:Q3
- 1981:Q4 |
13.7%
- 27.2% |
98.9% |
21.4%
- 40.8% |
90.7% |
1981:Q4
- 1993:Q4 |
27.2%
- 11.4% |
-58.2% |
40.8%
- 17.0% |
-58.4% |
1993:Q4
- 2000:Q2 |
11.4%
- 15.5% |
36.4% |
17.0%
- 18.8% |
11.0% |
2000:Q2
- 2006:Q4 |
15.5%
- 13.1% |
-15.5% |
18.8%
- 23.7% |
25.8% |
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