SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

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In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen three real price cycles and potentially the beginning of a fourth in Houston. An interesting fact is that Houston homes are still significantly lower in real price than during the late 1970's oil boom market. Market cycle time periods have varied from a downturn cycle of 17 years to the prior growth cycle of 9 years.

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The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles and potentially the beginning of a fourth, all of which included large changes in home affordability. The peak in 1982 is an abnormality due to all time high mortgage rates. It does however act as the turning point of a 16 year improvement in Houston home affordability. Due to this abnormality of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the median affordability ratio is skewed. Despite this fact however, the current mortgage-debt-to-income ratio generates no concern.