Houston Housing Report - thebubblebuster.com

SUMMARY HISTORY PEAKS & TROUGHS FORECASTS

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The Houston housing market experienced a continued slowdown in the fourth quarter and has posted negative real returns over the past 12 months (rolling year). Fortunately, Houston avoided the unbridled exuberance seen in many coastal markets, but national market psychology appears to have played a role in increased inventories and depressed prices. However, while further sales declines are likely, price declines of any dramatic fashion are unlikely as the mortgage debt servicing cost has remained steady and near historic lows.

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Nominal Price Activity		Houston	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	-2.7%	-2.7%	Poor
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	2.1%	1.7%	Weak
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	5.6%	13.4%	Fair
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	20.4%	49.4%	Weak
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	3.4%	6.0%	Poor
Real Price Activity		Houston	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	-3.1%	-3.0%	Poor
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	-0.9%	-1.2%	Weak
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	2.7%	10.3%	Fair
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	6.0%	31.8%	Weak
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	-0.6%	1.7%	Poor
Affordability Activity		Houston	National	Comment
	Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio* (Q4:2006)	13.3%	21.7%	Very Favorable
	Historical Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio*	16.9%	20.7%	Low
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*	This ratio compares the monthly mortgage payment (principal & interest only, which does not include hazard insurance, property taxes or any needed private mortgage insurance) for a median priced home financed at the prevailing 30 year mortgage rate to the local median 4-person family income.
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	Houston historical data is for the time period of Q2:1976 – Q4:2006
	National historical data is for the time period of Q1:1975 – Q4:2006

HOUSTON, TEXAS - Q4:2006