SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

---

1  |  2  |  Page 3  |  4   

In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen four real price cycles and the beginning of a fifth in Memphis. As the market is now in a downturn it is important to look at the prior two prior downturn cycles which each used inflation to correct high prices. Market cycle time periods have varied from a market downturn of 7 years to the prior market growth cycle of 12 years.

GET MEMPHIS MARKET FORECASTS     Next >

The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles and potentially the beginning of a fourth, all of which included large changes in home affordability. The peak in 1981 is an abnormality due to all time high mortgage rates. It does however act as the turning point of a 22 year improvement in Memphis home affordability. Due to this abnormality of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the median affordability ratio is skewed. Despite this fact however, the current mortgage-debt-to-income ratio generates no concern.