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In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen three real price cycles in New York. Including one cycle in which nominal prices fell a mere 4.8%, yet real prices fell nearly 30%. Market cycle time periods have varied from a downturn cycle of 8 years and the current growth cycle of 10 years.

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The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles and potentially the beginning of a fourth, all of which included substantial changes in home affordability. Interesting, New York did not experience the abnormally high affordability ratios in the late 1970s and early 1980s as did most every other US city. Due to current historical lows in mortgage rates home affordability is only moderately above the median. However, this translates to New York home prices having an above average mortgage rate fluctuation risk.