New York Housing Report - thebubblebuster.com

SUMMARY HISTORY PEAKS & TROUGHS FORECASTS

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The New York housing market experienced slower growth in the fourth quarter, but still posted average returns as nominal prices rose nearly another $25K. However, declines in sales activity has increased the number of homes on the market and is finally forcing sellers to lower their expectations. Further sales and the beginning of nominal pricing declines should be expected, particularly if mortgage rates move higher due to unfavorable affordability.

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Nominal Price Activity		New York	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	0.7%	-2.7%	Fair
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	5.2%	1.7%	Fair
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	15.3%	13.4%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	79.3%	49.4%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	8.3%	6.0%	Strong
Real Price Activity		New York	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	0.4%	-3.0%	Fair
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	3.1%	-1.2%	Fair
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	13.1%	10.3%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	57.3%	31.8%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	4.0%	1.7%	Strong
Affordability Activity		New York	National	Comment
	Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio* (Q4:2006)	31.6%	21.7%	Unfavorable
	Historical Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio*	23.0%	20.7%	Slightly High
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*	This ratio compares the monthly mortgage payment (principal & interest only, which does not include hazard insurance, property taxes or any needed private mortgage insurance) for a median priced home financed at the prevailing 30 year mortgage rate to the local median 4-person family income.
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	New York historical data is for the time period of Q1:1976 – Q4:2006
	National historical data is for the time period of Q1:1975 – Q4:2006

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - Q4:2006