SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

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In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past twenty-five years have seen two real price cycles in Pocatello. Both Pocatello market cycles involved nominal price growth. Market cycle time periods have varied from the downturn cycle of eight years to the current growth cycle of eighteen years.

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The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past twenty-five years have seen three cycles, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Fortunately, due in part to historically low mortgage rates, the current cycle has not hit the all time highs of the early 1980s. Conversely, this means today’s Pocatello home prices have an above average mortgage rate fluctuation risk.