SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

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In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen four real price cycles in Raleigh. Each Raleigh market cycle has involved nominal price growth. Market cycle time periods have varied from a downturn cycle of three years to the current growth cycle of thirteen years.

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The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen three cycles, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Fortunately, due in part to historically low mortgage rates, the current cycle has not come remotely near the all time highs of the early 1980s. Conversely, this means today’s Raleigh home prices have an above average mortgage rate fluctuation risk.