SUMMARY    HISTORY    PEAKS & TROUGHS    FORECASTS

---

1  |  2  |  Page 3  |  4   

In order to most accurately determine prior market price cycles one must remove the effects of inflation and look at real historical prices. The past thirty years have seen five real price cycles in Seattle. However, all market cycles have involved nominal price increases, including two cycles in which real growth was negative 17.2% and negative 5.8%. Market cycle time periods have varied from a downturn cycle of four years to the current growth cycle of twelve years.

GET SEATTLE MARKET FORECASTS     Next >

The mortgage-debt-to-income ratio is commonly viewed as the most accurate method of determining market cycles. The past thirty years have seen five cycles and the beginning of a sixth, all of which included large changes in home affordability. Fortunately, due to historically low mortgage rates, the prior cycle did not eclipse the all time highs of the early 1980s. Unfortunately, at current levels today’s Seattle home prices have an high mortgage rate fluctuation risk.